Market Pulse: India's Duty Window Closes 15 July, Crude Near $71

The third quarter opened the way the second closed — with crude falling and petrochemical feedstocks easing. But the most useful item for buyers this week isn't a price at all. It's a date.

India extends its duty-free window to 15 July

India has extended its full customs-duty exemption on a list of critical petrochemical imports — including toluene diisocyanate (TDI), polyols, methanol, monoethylene glycol (MEG), PVC, vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and styrene — through 15 July. The exemption was introduced to keep the domestic market well supplied while Middle East disruption peaked, and with the situation now normalising the government has set a firm end date for the transition.

For anyone importing these products into India, that's a short, hard-edged cost advantage. The practical move is to check whether in-transit or about-to-ship cargo can clear customs before the window shuts — for many buyers, hitting that date will matter more than any price negotiation this month.

Crude at a multi-month low

Brent slipped toward $71 in early-July trading, its weakest level since before the Iran conflict, after posting its steepest quarterly decline since 2020. The drivers are firmly on the supply side: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, Iran has moved tens of millions of barrels since its naval blockade was lifted, and Russian exports have climbed to record levels, with India's crude imports hitting a June record. US–Iran talks continue in Doha. Analysts now warn of a building supply glut, and the path of least resistance for crude remains lower.

Polymers: the story shifts from war to overcapacity

Here's the change worth internalising. For months, polymer prices were a geopolitics story — the war premium drove everything. As that premium unwinds, attention swings back to the structural issue that predates the conflict: overcapacity. More than 8 million tonnes per year of new polyethylene capacity is scheduled to come online in 2026, and Chinese overcapacity is back at the centre of the conversation. Chinese polymer futures have tracked crude lower, with polypropylene and polyethylene easing while PVC has held comparatively firm.

The takeaway for buyers of PVC and plasticizers and polyurethane feedstocks: this looks less like a temporary dip and more like a structural buyer's market on vinyls and polyolefins.

What buyers should do now

Two things are true at once — a building glut pushing prices down, and unfinished geopolitics that could still snap them back. That argues for staying nimble rather than making one big bet. If you buy into India, the immediate priority is the 15-July window. Beyond that, cover near-term needs to capture the current softness and stagger the balance so you're not over-exposed if the market turns.

For the mechanics of moving these products — containers, packaging and dangerous-goods rules — see our guide to shipping chemicals, polymers & minerals, and for the trade side, Incoterms 2020 explained.

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